The Way This Bizarre Season Shattered the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Mould.

Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

However this year's competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still